Winter wildfires are a climate warning

Phasing out coal, tragedy in LA, and how you can help when disaster strikes

GOOD NEWS

Coal is one of the dirtiest and least efficient ways to produce energy, and humans have been burning it for centuries. In 1306, King Edward I of England issued the first known air quality law, banning the burning of sea coal within London city limits—on pain of death!

Now, over 700 years later, is coal finally going the way of the dinosaurs? Last September, the United Kingdom became the first G7 country to completely phase out coal, decommissioning its last remaining plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire. In the United States, coal power output fell to its lowest level in nearly 60 years last year.

Currently there are only five new coal plants under development in the 38 member countries of the OECD, which include most of the world’s wealthy countries. This is the lowest level since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, when there were 142 proposed coal plants in OECD countries. The five proposed coal plants include two in the United States, and one each in Turkey, Japan and Australia.

But more needs to be done to wean the rest of the world off coal. Almost all new coal power is being built in just 15 countries, with India and China home to a full 86 percent of proposed new coal plants.

Want to visualize the world’s existing coal plants? Carbon Brief has this handy interactive graphic that will let you do just that.

NOT-SO-GOOD NEWS

LA wildfire near the city. Photo by PTZ Pictures on Shutterstock

Last week, wildfires ravaged Los Angeles County. So far, they’ve killed at least twenty five people--but as Jeff Masters explains here, the eventual death toll from toxic smoke "combined with disruption to the economy, health care system, and mental health" will be in the thousands.

The fires have also scorched some 12,000 structures, and displaced more than 150,000, putting them on track to be the most destructive wildfires in U.S. history. Many losses are concentrated in the Pacific Palisades, where just last year State Farm dropped 70 percent of its customers - some 1,600 homeowners - due to increasing risk.

Any disaster is a function of three things: how many people and structures are exposed; how prepared or vulnerable they are; and the hazard itself, in this case wildfire. And in this case, it’s a perfect storm of all three. LA is a densely inhabited, fire-prone area. But although January isn't typical wildfire season in southern California, Los Angeles County was tinder dry after receiving only 0.16 inches of rain (that's 0.4 cm) since last May and experiencing an unusually warm summer. This, plus low humidity and the fastest Santa Ana winds since 2011, made for unprecedented fire weather.

As meteorologist Eric Holthaus explained, “The National Weather Service defines ‘extremely critical’ fire weather as sustained winds in excess of 30 mph and relative humidity of less than 10% in the presence of drought conditions and temperatures warmer than 70 degrees F. This is the first time in history these criteria have been met anywhere in the United States during the month of January.”

We know that climate change is creating warmer, drier conditions that cause fire seasons in some regions like western North America to last longer and be more active. Fires across western North America are growing bigger. These fires are also getting faster, and faster fires are much more dangerous and destructive. 17 of the 20 largest wildfires in California history have occurred since 2003, as this graphic illustrates. And the drought Los Angeles was experiencing this fall and winter was influenced by record-high ocean temperatures.

Scientists can even put numbers on how much climate change is influencing wildfires. A full 37 percent of the area burned across western North America over the last 35 years is attributable to emissions from 88 corporations. Another study found that climate change has increased the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25 percent, on average. Very fast fires are responsible for more than 75 percent of the structures that burned in the United States from 2001 to 2020.

Yet again, climate change is no longer a future issue – it’s here and now, putting us all at risk.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

Austin, TX, November 19, 2020. Photo by Vic Hinterland on Shutterstock

With floods, fires, hurricanes, and other crises becoming more frequent and severe, the question isn’t if we’ll be affected, but rather when. And as these disasters mount, it’s easy to feel helpless. That’s why it’s so important to be aware of tangible ways we can take action and make a difference.

No matter where you live, make sure you and your loved ones are prepared for whatever type of disaster might strike your area. In case of evacuation, remember the six P’s (people & pets, papers, prescriptions, photos & personal items, personal computers and plastic cards). For more on how to prepare for a disaster, see this comprehensive post from my colleague Kimberly Nicholas, a climate scientist at Lund University, and check out these Talking Climate newsletters from last summer where I talked about preparing for heat and flood.

During a disaster, look for a helpful list of specific ways to support victims and first responders, like this one for California. Donate to global organizations like the Red Cross or World Central Kitchen that are often the first to arrive at the scene when war or disaster strikes. Where I work at The Nature Conservancy, there’s a crisis fund that employees can donate to. Your organization might have something like that too!

Tackling climate change at scale requires policy change. Long-term, consider joining a climate action group to amplify your own voice and connect with others who share your concerns about our shared future. I have a list of organizations on my website, and you can find most of them online.

One of my favourite organizations is Citizen’s Climate Lobby, where NASA scientist Jim Hansen and I have served as science advisors for over a decade. CCL has 528 active chapters in more than 50 countries. It empowers its volunteers to build meaningful relationships with elected officials, find common ground on climate solutions, and educate yourself on how to be a better climate advocate. Here's a handy guide on how to get started.

As daunting as the climate crisis is, action is our antidote to despair (to quote Joan Baez). Every step we take—whether it’s supporting disaster response efforts, advocating for climate policies, or preparing our families for emergencies—helps build resilience in the face of a changing world.

Thurs Jan 23 at 12:00pm ET - Science for a Better Future with The Nature Conservancy - free online webinar

Wed Jan 29 at 6:30pm ET - Envisioning a Livable Future with Nancy Tuchman, Benjamin Sovacool, and John Carroll University - in person at John Carroll University in University Heights, Ohio, and free online, but registration is required.